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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/16 11:54

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Corn and wheat lead at midday with soybeans fading again.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer at midday with the Dow futures up 
150. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 5 points lower. 
Energies are mixed with crude down $0.30. Livestock trade is mostly lower. 
Precious metals are firmer with gold up $6. 


   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade bouncing back from 
the selling on Tuesday so far, moving back towards the middle of the range. The 
South American recent weather pattern remains intact with a mix of excessive 
rain and pockets of dryness with some potential improvement. The weekly ethanol 
report showed production up 51,000 barrels per day, 0.94% behind last year's 
pace, with stocks rising again, causing ethanol margins to deteriorate further. 
Winter weather will likely slow corn movement again, keeping basis flat to 
firmer. The government partial shutdown is expected to continue to limit news. 
Trade progress was down played by the administration yesterday. On the March 
chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $3.70 1/2 with the 100-day at 
$3.77 now resistance. 


   Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher with support from weather concerns 
reemerging overnight, with early buying fading yet again. Meal is flat to $1.00 
higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. South America weather items remain 
in the recent weather pattern with harvest going early amid heat and pockets of 
dryness in Brazil with generally disappointing yields so far, and excessive 
rain potential in Argentina. Chinese trade data continues to disappoint, 
raising concerns about demand coming forward until we see more substantial 
trade progress with confirmed purchases of U.S. beans 18 million metric tons 
behind last year's pace. December crush set a record at 171 million bushels 
reflecting strong crush margins and domestic use. Forecasts are being monitored 
closely. Support is the lower Bollinger band at $8.81 with resistance at the 
$9.05 50-day above that. 


   Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents higher with trade following corn higher. The 
dollar has bounced, but faded after the Brexit deal rejection Tuesday. Southern 
Hemisphere harvest will continue in the near term. North American winter wheat 
should see a cool down this week, with snow cover expected in front of the cold 
snap for most areas but will need to be watched. Russia domestic prices will be 
watched closely with firmer values again there. On the March Kansas City chart, 
support is the $4.88 1/2 lower Bollinger Band. Resistance is at the 10-day at 
$5.02, and then the 50-day at $5.05.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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