May 13, 2021
Portland Price Trends
05-01-20 08-01-20 04-01-21 05-06-21 05-13-21
#1 SWW (bu) 6.06 5.60 6.70 8.40 8.30
White Club 7.56 6.00 6.70 8.40 8.30
DNS 14% 6.77 6.21 6.99 8.82 8.30
HRW 11.5% 6.33 5.71 6.85 8.30 7.68
#2 Corn (ton) 144.00 151.00 240.00 313.00 301.00
#2 Barley 130.00 130.00 180.00 180.00 180.00
Wheat...A weaker futures complex took a big toll on west coast protein
wheat markets this week, while a tightening white wheat balance sheet put
some relative support under that market. Old crop white wheat basis has
nearly doubled from a week ago, climbing back to 115 over the Chicago July
futures. New crop basis also strengthened 50 cents from a week ago which
is welcome news to producers who established hedge to arrive contracts.
Weekly Sales...USDA reported a more subdued pace of export demand for
U.S. wheat, with new crop sales coming in at 9.8 mb to put commitments at
120 mb for the coming year. This sets 43% ahead of a year ago, on strong
interest in all classes of wheat except hard red winter. Sales for soft
red winter set at 28 mb versus 12 mb a year ago, hard red spring is at 33
mb versus 19 mb and soft white is at 25 mb versus 10 mb at this time last
year. Hard red winter is the laggard with 28 mb versus 39 mb.
Crop Report...USDA showed an overall increase in U.S. wheat stocks but
tightened the white wheat balance sheet. A record pace of exports for that
class of wheat is expected to pull stocks down to 53 mb, which would place
stocks-to-use on par with the lowest of the past 30 years; a level of 15%
last seen in 2006.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
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